The process of Brexit: what comes next?

wp2_arenwick_front_coverIn a new report published jointly by the UCL Constitution Unit and the UCL European Institute, Alan Renwick,  Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit, examines what the process of Brexit is likely to look like over the coming weeks, months, and years. Here he summarises five key lessons.

The phoney war around Brexit is almost over. For months, two immediate questions have dominated discussions: How can Article 50 be triggered? And what sort of deal will ministers seek? The Supreme Court’s ruling on 24 January answered the first question. We know much more now about the second through Theresa May’s Lancaster House speech and last Thursday’s white paper. The Article 50 bill is being debate in parliament. By the end of March – if the government gets its way – we will be entering a new phase in the process.

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Brexit and Parliament: A Second Capitulation or Sovereignty Regained?

UCL Professor of EU Law, parliamentPiet Eeckhout, examines the role of Parliament in the Brexit process after the Supreme Court judgement, arguing that an alternative reading of Article 50 would offer greater scope for parliamentary oversight and, therefore, a more democratic outcome.

 

The judiciary has spoken, most clearly. Parliament must authorise the triggering of Article 50, in essence because it failed to spell out the legal effects of the referendum in the EU Referendum Act 2015. If it had done so, the Miller litigation would not have been necessary.

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Canada-Dry: Where next for UK-EU Brexit talks?

theresa-may-speechAmid talk of a UK-EU trade deal, many seem to have forgotten that the divorce talks need to happen first. Kirsty Hughes, Senior Fellow at Friends of Europe, explains that both processes are unlikely to run as smoothly as some might like to believe. She notes that Theresa May faces a range of complex challenges in the Brexit negotiations which her speech failed to mention. 

 

The UK remains on course to trigger Article 50 and start the two-year Brexit process in March. Theresa May’s big speech on her Brexit plans set out the goal of establishing a new UK-EU free trade deal.

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What Next? Legislative Authority for Triggering Article 50

1200px-uk_supreme_court_court_1The decision of the Supreme Court that Article 50 TEU cannot be invoked without Parliamentary approval means the Government must consider the form of such an Act without delay, argues Jeff King, Professor of Law at UCL, in a post first published on the UK Constitutional Law Association Blog.

 

The Supreme Court judgment in Miller v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union on the morning of 24 January 2017 made it clear that an Act of Parliament is required for a notice under article 50(2) of the Treaty of the European Union. The Government and Opposition should now state their positions clearly on the form of such an Act without delay.  So far, there has been little such discussion. This post (originally published on 8 November 2016 and reposted here for convenience) suggests form, content and conditions for such legislation that neither challenge the result of the 23 June 2016 referendum nor the Government’s stated timelines for giving notice.

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Following the Supreme Court ruling, what happens next?

high-courtFollowing today’s Supreme Court judgement, the focus of attention shifts back to parliament.  How long will it take for parliament to pass the necessary legislation? How likely is it that the legislation will be amended? UCL Constitution Unit scholars Robert Hazell and Alan Renwick assess the implications for the Brexit timetable, and the government’s negotiating strategy. This blog was initially posted on the UCL Constitution Unit blog.

What will happen to the government’s timetable?

The government will introduce a short bill, probably just one or two clauses, which it will seek to pass as a matter of urgency. Bills have occasionally been passed through parliament in a few days, or even a few hours. But that can only happen if both chambers recognise the urgency, and support the bill. Crucially, the government would need to get majority support for a timetabling motion in the House of Commons to expedite the process. That might not be forthcoming in a House where three quarters of MPs voted for Remain. (In 2012 Nick Clegg had to abandon his Lords Reform bill after the government lost the timetabling motion following a big Conservative rebellion).

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